Just got an email from Steve Ballmer (yes, I am a subscriber to Microsoft executive emails) about the new normal. The idea of the email is that things have changed so much in the economy that the new normal requires new efficiency and that this will be driven by IT innovations. According to him the nature of the shift is “After years of economic expansion fueled by unrealistic rates of consumption and unsustainable levels of private debt, the global economy has reset at a lower baseline level of activity. Today, people borrow less, save more, and spend with much greater caution.” And the slew of products that Microsoft is releasing is supposed to help with IT efficiency to produce the new normal. Maybe it will, maybe it wont. My view is that the changes are so fundamental, that the new normal is going to lead to massive increases in net economic welfare (NEW). That is the new, in the new normal.

While I agree with with Mr. Ballmer on the basic premise of the new normal and I share his optimism about the future, I do not agree that releasing new software products that are simply more of the same is the solution that will create the new normal. If you have been listening to recent IBM commercials, I think they give an inkling of what the new normal is – technology in the broad sense applied to solving big planetary problems by folks who are ready to apply the best knowledge and thinking to solving these problems.

What is the new normal? The new normal is quantum leaps in productivity where organizations will get increasing share of the consumer’s wallet by producing benefits better than what they consume today at better quality, faster and at a cheaper price. What has happened in the last few boom periods, is increase in paper wealth but not in real economic benefit or real wealth. For example, in the software industry, to increase informational worker productivity, they do not need the umpteenth version of word but software that rethinks the whole process of document creation. What they need is a piece of software that uses artificial intelligence and automation to help an IW produces better documents with clarity and ability to achieve the purpose of the document the worker wants to produce.

Lets use a scenario as an example. John is a corporate lawyer one of the best in the area of international corporate structures. He works for a Tony law firm in New York, but he lives in Sequim WA, so he can be close to some of the best fly fishing in the continent United States. Imagine he is getting on a new case, first there were emails, the phone and conference call and finally a video conference with the client where he decided to take on the case. All of this from his “intelligent” home office of course using Unified Communications. His intelligent office, based on his work style, then when on to gather all the case laws, collect all the necessary templates fill it will the clients information and noted some of the exceptions that could be related to this case. All John, then has to do is review and make specific changes based on his expertise.  What has happened  here is that technology has allowed John to focus on his most highly valued activity, it has replaced an army of back office people doing grunt work, that could get tired and make mistakes or forget. And it has enabled John to be more productive and increased his net economic welfare and that of the whole society.

Hence, the new normal  is one of productivity. Productivity in the way people work – I don’t think the large company form is the best way to maximize economic production. In how people work, do we need to move massive number of people to same location everyday. Or in what people do – when is robotics going to lead to the next phase of industrial revolution and knowledge work anyone?

Here are some ideas that I think I already going in the direction of the new normal:

1. Singularity

2. Auto code generation

3. Artificial Intelligence

4. Electric cars

5. Biomimicry

5. Human machine interface

Take any industry and there are evolutionary and revolutionary ideas. And the best ones are the one taking ideas from other disciplines.

This Mr. Ballmer is the new normal, it is a revolution not an evolution. You more than most people on the planet are in charge of the resources that can lead this revolution. However, you seem to need a larger vision.