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    2/23/2009

    George Soros view of the current economic conditions

     
    We witnessed the collapse of the financial system," Soros told his audience. “It was placed on life support, and it’s still on life support. There’s no sign that we are anywhere near a bottom."
     
     
    George's views is important to me me because I am reading his latest book, "The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means"
    12/25/2007

    Strategy

    The English word strategy derives from "strategos", a Greek word that means "leader of the army". Thus, strategy implies generalship.

    Strategy puts knowledge, insights and experience to the best practical use.

    The first rule of strategy is: See things as they are, not how you want them to be. Take a unbiased look at your assumptions and beliefs. Do not dwell on what worked in the past. Live in the present so you can clearly see what you are up against then plan accordingly.

    Presence of mind is your ally in balancing out threats or challenges. Do not pay attention to what people say about themselves; judge them by their actions. Further, understand this actions as strategic maneuvers.

    Don't drink your own kool-aid, in evaluating yourself, don't take account your thoughts or you ambitions, but rather your actions and result - deal with the reality the way it is. Acknowledge your current condition, however do not let it define you.

    Set you mind, to that which you want to accomplish, and pursue it with all that you've got. Decision, Discipline and Diligence.

    11/7/2007

    How China rises - 21st Century Socialism

    What lessons can be drawn from China's spectacular and sustained economic growth?

    As Hu Jintau remarked at the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, the period since the previous Congress five years ago has been extraordinary. China's economic achievements have been arousing not only astonishment and admiration but also some anxiety.
    In the past twelve months alone, The People's Republic of China (PRC) has overtaken Canada as the biggest source of imports to the USA, and overtaken the USA as the biggest source of imports to the European Union. Concern about the low level of investment in Africa has been displaced by concern about the effects of the high level of Chinese investment in Africa; there is now even anxiety about the effects of investment by Chinese state-owned firms into the Western economies.

    The Chinese Communist Party is also expressing concerns. The themes of its 2007 Congress included protection of the environment and the achievement of social harmony. According to some estimates, China has displaced the USA as the world's biggest source of greenhouse gases. Inequality is rising as fast as pollution: China now has over 800 individuals with a personal wealth of more than a hundred million US dollars each, up from 500 in 2006; while the average income in rural areas of China is 480 dollars per year.

    How China rises - 21st Century Socialism

    10/19/2007

    Hedge Fund Manager

    You don't have to look far, to see that the new captains of industry are hedge fund managers. But wanting to be like one is not the point of this blog, rather it is what can you learn from the techniques of a fund manager.

    Everyone should either be an indexer - get rich slowly with some risk or a hedge funder - get rich fast with a lot of risk in their investing style. The hedge fund approach is aimed at maximizing returns irrespective of the market condition. They invest globally in all asset classes, they use leverage and derivatives and they capitalize on unique opportunities in the global market.

    Get this, the most valuable thing to the hedge fund manager though is the ability to monetize the intangibles - secrecy, records of return even when the overall market is doing well, avoid being benchmarked and finally mispricings.

    2/28/2007

    Bernake makes sense

     I have always loved the study of economics recently this is all I have been reading. While most of the concepts were somewhere in my head, it took a while for them to come back to me.

    However, validation came to me listening to Ben Bernanke this morning, his talk was lucid and his economic theory makes sense in fact often through his testimony, I felt as if he is a professor explaining economic concept to the congress men and women without being condescending like a regular prof.

    Wonder if Greenspan will make sense?

    2/2/2007

    The next challenge

    I have decided to take on another challenge. An adventure in learning, I  think I generally do school well....
    So I have decided to take the CFA exam, in the next few months I will be busy, however, I still want to blog about this experience.
    However considering the nature of the things I may be blogging about.. I may at any point take this blog semi private, meaning you'll have to be in my IM list to see it.... Oh well.
     
    More on the CFA -- it is actually cool, and unlike B-School, you actually have to master the darn materials and Thank God, there is no operations or management science or other crap that I don't like. Although there is ethics -- wished I pay more attnetion, however, that was the easiest of them all in that first year.
     
    Wanna know what i'll be learning? Check out the picture
    11/7/2006

    Investors Business Daily

    As I no longer blog as much as I used to, it is often hard to find some of the features of spaces. For example, dealing with "categories" just before I wrote this blog was a pian in the arse.
     
    Anyways, I started getting copies of Investors Business Daily again, I like the newspaper, but I simply don't have the time to read it.
    This time around though -- I think I will try the eIBD. There was an Ad for a trial at the back, somethign tells me they are well aware that newspapers are dinosaurs.
     
    my favorite part of the paper is:
     

    IBD’s 10 Secrets To Success

    Investor’s Business Daily has spent years analyzing leaders and successful people in all walks of life. Most have 10 traits that, when combined, can turn dreams into reality. Each day, we highlight one.
       
    1 HOW YOU THINK IS EVERYTHING: Always be positive. Think success, not failure. Beware of a negative environment.
    2 DECIDE UPON YOUR TRUE DREAMS AND GOALS: Write down your specific goals and develop a plan to reach them.
    3 TAKE ACTION: Goals are nothing without action. Don’t be afraid to get started. Just do it.
    4 NEVER STOP LEARNING: Go back to school or read books. Get training and acquire skills.
    5 BE PERSISTENT AND WORK HARD: Success is a marathon, not a sprint. Never give up.
    6 LEARN TO ANALYZE DETAILS: Get all the facts, all the input. Learn from your mistakes.
    7 FOCUS YOUR TIME AND MONEY: Don’t let other people or things distract you.
    8 DON’T BE AFRAID TO INNOVATE; BE DIFFERENT: Following the herd is a sure way to mediocrity.
    9 DEAL AND COMMUNICATE WITH PEOPLE EFFECTIVELY: No person is an island. Learn to understand and motivate others.
    10 BE HONEST AND DEPENDABLE; TAKE RESPONSIBILITY: otherwise, Nos. 1-9 won’t matter.
    10/19/2006

    Investing Risk; Douglass Truth

    What I learned this week in class.

    1. The investment market is like a club, primarily to screw the investing public, but they have to keep enough people happy to keep the game going.

    2. In trading, @ NYSE you are being screwed by one guy (the specialist) who has a knowledge advantage in the market. At the NASDAQ, or other electronic markets you are being screwed by a group of brokerage houses who are also trying to screw each other.

    3. The market is mostly influenced by momentum, this is because most trading is institutionalized. Here is the logic, because most fund managers are ranked they have a useful life of 90 days (last quarter's performance); fund managers tend to do what makes them sucessful in the first place, hence these things gets carried to excess.

    What this means for an individual investor is for long term money, identify solid companies with long term potential, for short term though, go for momentum.

     

    Douglass - Truth Branch

    The best connection I have with a community as a member of that community is the library. My local SPL branch Douglass Truth was opened last week and I visited today. I liked it and borrowed  a couple of DVDs, like the friendly librarian Lesley, the business books collection is week, but they have an awesome African American and Audio book collection, which I liked too.

    10/5/2006

    In the classroom again :)

    Back in the classroom, this time with no grades at stake - simply "complete or incomplete" and that only if I care.
    Woohoo - I am happy to be back! The mental stimulation, the probabilities, the permutations and combinations.
    This is excitement folks! Happiness is learning!
     
    Yesterday, I started an evening class "Eko Agba". This class is supposed to be about Finance - but for me, it is simply getting over the angst of not wanting to be in a formal classroom, post grad school. I really miss the classroom environment - the teacher was awesome, the students amazing, with various degree of expertise, sophistication and intelligence. And I, I am back to my old ways - asking questions, questions that are insightful to me but may be annoying to other students. By the end of 10 weeks I will probably have the reputation as that dude that can't shut up. I don't care because these questions help me learn and often other students would like to know the answers as well.
     
    The beauty of questions is the impact on learning, helping you to make the connection between what you know and new material. It is ok to ask a question and not have an answer, there are no stupid questions.
     
    Thinking - thinking is an art form, it is a way of exercising the mind's muscles.
     
    The objective of class is different this time, it is about being able to do something with the knowledge. As opposed to knowledge for it's own sake.
     
    " Knowledge is not power, it is what you are able to do with the knowledge that bestows power " -shola.
     
    10/3/2006

    Jack Welch, you are wrong!!!

    I admire Jack Welch as a CEO however, my eyes are not covered with rose petal glasses, when it comes to thinking about his philosophy.
    Jack writes a series of articles for businessweek with his wife. And in his latest article he addressed the question, "Who owns the company?"
    Unequivocally, his position is that the shareholders own the corporation, while everyone else is a stakeholder.
     
    While he espoused all the other usual arguments, something that was missing in the piece is how the ownership question is intertwined with the definition question. 
    "Who owns the company?" is equivalent to "What is the company?"
     
    Once you posit the question as stated above, even based on Jack's own arguments, you will realize that, by definition - a company is a nexus of contracts. Hence all the parties to that contract are in some form or the other owners of the company, in the proportion that is equivalent to their stake in the contract.
    7/20/2006

    Screw or Be Screwed - Jungle Economics

    I really agonized over the title of this entry. Alas, in the end I decided to go with this one, "screw or be screwed". This section could be subtitled - Introduction to Jungle Economics or An alternative economic viewpoint.
     
    Often I find myself saying things that sounds like a quote and as I mull things over in my head, the meaning becomes clearer and these phrases tends to have multi-dimensional meanings.
     
    This one in particular came to me, as I was dicussing economic and social stratification with a friend.
    We all think of the laws of nature - although I doubt many people can actually codify it - and the relationship of these laws to the capitalism, darwinism etc. I posit, that in this economic system (US as primary example), the players can broadly be divided into two, the screwers and the screwed - although  most people operates as both, it is the net effect that matters.
    My point is that, in this economic system there are two classes of people - net producers and net consumers.
     
    Although, most peole produce in some fashion for example in terms of thier primary work, some leisure activties e.g. church board etc. and most people consume, for example - food, clothing, shelter, recreation etc. The differentiator in class is the relative percentage of ones production versus consumption and the value that society places on whatever that net is.
     
    Therefore, it is imperative to know where you are relative to the rest of the system and more importantly have a plan to either maintain your position, change your position or at least if you are going to get screwed, know who is screwing you and why.
     
    The economic system overall  is designed to favor the net producers over the net consumers. How is that? Through a complex system of taxation, social capital, property rights etc.  Often designed by the net screwers to strengthen their position in society.
    Sometimes, society seems to have allusions to altruistic intentions, however a deeper examination of the motive and the execution process will clearly show that intrinsically society favors the net producers.
     
    OK - I understand, that I need more proof to substantiate this hypothesis or thesis. Over the next few blog entries, I will seek to develop this thesis in a more cogent version and let's see if we can designed an alternative economic model view of the world.
     
     However, I have to get back to work now, so stay tuned for v-2.