I really like this video, primarily because is will help answer the question, "What is Africa like?"

This is a postive reaction/response to all the negativity about Africa, hence it tends to be very positive.

It is not an attempt to deny the realities of life in Africa, but rather to point to some of the things we have to be proud of that will appeal to western sensibiities.

The things I am most proud of as an African, is actually the intangibles..

How do you describe, the sense, sounds and smells of Lagos. The palpable fear and the humanity of it all.

The quiet solitude of my hometown -Usi Ekiti, all the fact that every member is really and truly your family.

The best capture of the dichotomy of the western sensibilities and an African one for me, is when Mrs Clinton said, "it takes a village to raise a child". I doubt that meant the same thing to both of us.

 

 

 

Well, it is that time to give this blog another redesign. For some reason, I seem to have lost my audience.. oh well.

The purpose fo this blog is really not about the audience but about me, the interesting observationsI make, interesting things that I think about, rants and raves, knowledge which potentially could become opportunity and the philosophy - decision, descipline and diligence.

 

If I rule the world is simply a catchy title of the song by Nas. However, all I wanted to blog about is if I rule Nigeria.

Let's assume for a minute that I am Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar'Adua, what will I be doing? What will I do differently than Obasanjo?

 

For one, I will focus. Of all the issues facing Nigeria, corruption, education, infrastructure, security, economic progress etcetera etcetera. I will pick several, that I will focus on, that will be forever changed in the annals of the history of that country Nigeria, because I am presido.

 

However, I wouldn't randomly choose , first you need to understand each and everyone of these issue. Second, define what success looks like that everyone could agree to and third prioritize.

 

This simple analysis, will help to deduce, what the four years of my administration will mean to Nigerians. What to focus on.

 

So what has Musa decided to do? Well for clues we will need to read his victory speech.

The clues point to reconciliation, reform, jobs and electricity.

He expnaded on some of this to mean no division between North and South, Christians and Muslims. " There will only be Nigeria. One Nation. One people. One future. One destiny."

The CNBC investment challenge is about to start again, march 5th 2007 for 10 weeks, the way I see it is, it is a goood way to learn by using play money to invest. Do I really have a chance of winning? I dont think so, but I think it is an opportunity to look at the things I will be learning in the light of how they relate to the stock market.

 

Nigeria - I was watching an informercial today. Yes informercial, on the the worlds greatesttreasury of health secrets.

The whole idea is that there are natural supplements, that are more effective that traditional medicine from the big pharma.

My perspective is that this is one of those solutions to America's busted healthcare system. But based on innovators dilemma, I think where these types of ideas actually has the greatest currency is in the developing world. These are the places where people can simply not afford the medicine peddled by this big pharma, where traditional remedies will find a natural audience all we need is to connect it with scientific methods and since our doctors are not doing this, lets take the research being done in this great universities in the US, Australia and Germany and apply it. In fact, we could learn a lot from the chinese and japanese in this regard as well.

 

This whole concept of course could be expanded into other major areas of what the people need.

Housing -- use mud and other readily available materials to build houses that meet in fact exceed current standards - BASF is already doing this research.

Health - use alternative medicine

Energy - think solar, think alternative energy like ethanol (the big players like BP is already doing this research)

 

 

In fact, you could go down the list of Maslow Hierarchy of needs and you will find answers.

 

 

Gold is a beautiful thing. And like all precious minerals, it can only be found in a pile of rubbish.

This is what Nigeria is all about, a whole pie of   ugliness with some beauty inside or beneath.

 

Why?

In spite of all the corruption, some of the people remain hopeful that things will get better. Nigerians are not some of the happiest people on earth for no reason.

 

What will it take?

I think what it will take, is either a leadership whose goal is not to get stupendously rich, who identifies with the whole and not just some part of the whole. Or an enlightened followership, who demands the best from their leaders, and make them uncomfortable when they are not delivering.

This is a really interesting read on Africa that incorporates some of the thinking in my previous blog. It is now off the originial website. So I had to go way backmachine to get it.

I will try and preserve it here, for interested readers.

 

 

Africa: A History of Failed Economic Growth

by Seth Payne & Catherine Lee

In 2005, the plight of Africa received its fair share of attention, be it from international summits, the world’s richest man and his wife, or Irish rock stars. The topic is likely no news to the American public: the developed world, with its ever-increasing media coverage, is constantly exposed to the grim realities of sub-Saharan Africa, where half the population subsists on less than a dollar a day and the life expectancy is as low as 33 years. Some estimates put the poverty rate in all of Africa at nearly 45%. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), Africa’s poorest countries have extreme poverty rates close to 90%. The World Bank calculates that GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa is a mere 3.5% and that growth would need to be 7% to cut poverty levels in half over the next decade. Most disturbingly, sub-Saharan Africa is the only region on earth where the number of people living in poverty has increased in the past 20 years.

Why has Africa failed? What has been tried? And, most importantly, where do we go from here?

Why Africa?

Inevitably one must wonder as to why Africa has uniquely failed to develop when poor regions everywhere else have experienced at least mediocre, if not shockingly rapid, growth. Economics scholars pose vastly differing theories for what distinguishes Africa from the rest.

Africa�s notoriously corrupt governance is a commonly cited reason for its persisting poverty. With only a few exceptions, the countries of Africa turned to dictatorship soon after gaining independence from European colonial powers. The type of abuse is seen in the case of Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire (renamed Congo in 1997). During Mobutu�s 35-year-rule as head of a �democratic� government, he and his ministers sold and pocketed the lucrative mining rights to Zaire�s substantial cobalt, nickel, and diamond mines. Nigeria, a country rich in oil deposits, has generated over $280 billion in foreign oil sales in the last 30 years. Yet, Nigeria remains one of the 20 poorest countries in the world and is forced to import about 70% of its own fuel needs due to gross mismanagement and rampant corruption. Other forms of corruption include mismanagement of land despite the plentiful availability of it. Land reform in Zimbabwe, meant to return land from European owners to family farmers, simply benefited native Africans with strong ties to the Europeans. However, in light of all this, critics of the poor governance theory claim that African governments have not been particularly worse than those of other developing regions, which have also experienced their share of tyranny and corruption. Yet others argue that poor governance is a result, not cause, of Africa�s faltering economy.

Africa�s colonial history may also have played a crucial role, with respect to initial conditions of African nations� political independence. Firstly, European colonial powers left behind very little in terms of infrastructure. This is in contrast to the colonization of East Asian tigers such as Korea and Taiwan, where pre-World War II Japan had developed extensive infrastructure. European imperial powers may also have debilitated their African colonies� economic stability by gearing their production toward only a few raw materials, leaving the countries extremely vulnerable to price swings.

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Africa’s poorest countries have extreme poverty rates close to 90%... Most disturbingly, sub-Saharan Africa is the only region on earth where the number of people living in poverty has increased in the past 20 years.

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Another oft-cited theory is that of geographic determinism. Various subtheories exist under this broad heading. One states that tropical climate regions have less incentive to develop than those of temperate climate, for abundant natural resources are already at hand. This is referred to as the �resource curse.� Another conjecture claims that continents that are long vertically, such as Africa and South America, experience great variations in latitudes, which signifies greater variations in climates and leads to difficulty in the transfer of technology. Yet others speculate that Africa lacks inlets for commerce into the interior parts of the continent, as does Europe through the Baltic and Adriatic Seas, Asia through the gulf of India and Persia, and both Europe and Asia through the Mediterranean. Furthermore, three-fourths of sub-Saharan Africa�s population lives more than 100 kilometers interior of the continent � the highest concentration of inland population in the world. This may be owing to an erratic climate and lack of fertile land near the coast. Others attribute this phenomenon to the legacy of slave trade, which may have encouraged inward movement, away from the seas.

Over the past twenty years, a new threat has jumped to the forefront in challenging Africa�s prospects for development: the HIV virus. The statistics are staggering. Currently, more than 26 million people are infected, with more than 2.3 million deaths per year. 8,500 contract the disease every day. A report by Great Britain�s Royal African Society estimates that the disease suppresses the overall sub-Saharan annual GDP growth rates by 0.8 percentage points; in some countries, that rate is a high as 2.6 percent. Unfortunately, poor economies and a weak political culture have made combating challenges such as the AIDS epidemic difficult.

Challenges for the Future

To date, aid policies to Africa have generally fallen into one of two categories. In the first, the West has extended compassion without fully inviting or enabling Africa to participate in world markets. For example, in times of famine, violent ethnic conflict, or natural disaster, the West, through both governmental and NGO action, has sent millions of dollars to provide immediate relief to suffering Africans. Yet simultaneously, the domestic policies of both the United States and the European Union provide substantial subsidies to domestic farmers which cripple Africa�s efforts to create self-sustaining economies. According to Barry Nalebuff, Milton Steinbach Professor of Management at Yale�s School of Management, �agricultural subsidies create excess supply and depress prices� for African farmers in economies where Agriculture is one of the few, if not the only, means of internally generating capital.

Effectively, these subsidies “undermine the ability of third-world farmers to compete where they have a comparative advantage.” Currently, U.S. corn is sold on the world market at 20% below the actual cost of production. Wheat is sold at 46% below production costs. Clearly, African farmers cannot participate in a world market where prices are so artificially deflated. According to a recent OXFAM report, Western subsidies and import barriers cost developing nations about $100 billion a year – twice the amount they receive in aid. Not only do these policies significantly curtail African economic development, but also they prevent African nations from developing the resources to combat significant domestic challenges. Thus, the West feels compelled to relieve immediate suffering but fails to consider the impact of its domestic policies. This compassion-only approach has, to some degree, bred a paternalistic view of Africa in the west and created an “us and them” mentality toward both the countries and people of Africa.

In the second category, on the other hand, aid has been given at a high price to those countries in the most need of loans and also the least capable of repaying them. In “Biblical Foundations for Christian Social Teaching,” a study set to be published in 2007, Thomas Ogletree, Professor of Theological Ethics and former Dean of Yale Divinity School points out that in the past, charging high interest rates on loans was frowned upon as abuse of the poor and needy. “Such exploitation continues to corrupt the lending practices of many banks and financial institutions in the contemporary world”, he says. “Loans are offered to people facing desperate financial circumstances with interest rates so high as to exacerbate their plight.” Clearly, loans given to African nations should not cause more problems than they are intended to solve.

In other cases, cash has been given only with the promise that the money be spent on importing goods from the donor country. The United States, for example, has required that aid dollars earmarked for the purchase of HIV/AIDS medication be spent only on American-made drugs even when generic versions of these medications can be purchased from South Africa or India at substantially lower prices. The UN Economic and Social council refers to this type of aid as “tied aid” and estimates that the effectiveness of such aid is reduced by as much as 45% due to such strict stipulations. Additionally, unrealistic political strings have often been attached to aid, forcing African nations to refuse help because of the difficulty meeting political expectations.

Despite the bleak state of both African economies and failed western aid policies, there are indications of hope and change. Botswana, a landlocked state surrounded by poverty-stricken neighbors, has had tremendous growth over the past four decades. According to Daron Acumoglu, Simon Johnson and James A. Robinson, authors of “An African Success Story: Botswana,” positive social dynamics have contributed to this growth. In addition to sound economic policies, “maintaining and strengthening institutions of private property [are] in the economic interest of the elite.” These institutions also provide economic opportunity to the poor which has helped to develop a stable middle-class by “[protecting] the property rights of potential and actual investors, [providing] political stability, and [ensuring] that the political elites are constrained by the political system and the participation of a broad cross-section of society.” This combination of sound policy and properly-aligned interests has led to solid and stable economic conditions without the need of endless foreign aid. Botswana functions well because its institutions allow for all citizens to effectively participate in an economy where competing interests efficiently work towards a mutually beneficial end. Certainly, Botswana’s success can be replicated in other parts of Africa and western aid policies can play an important role in creating much-needed economic stability.

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“You are asking to generalize fifty-three countries–800 million people. Circumstances are different from nation to nation. Some African countries have made real strides... the approach must be multifaceted.”

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So what ultimately makes the problem of sustainable development in Africa intractable? There is likely no single answer. “You are asking to generalize fifty-three countries – 800 million people,” comments Susan Rice, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs. “Circumstances are different from nation to nation. Some African countries have made real strides... the approach must be multifaceted.” These facets may range from the elimination of trade barriers caused by the protectionist policies of wealthy nations to the provision of electricity. Solutions do not have to come from solely the public sector, either. “Private sectors play an important role. We must provide incentives to the private sector to look at Africa [as a viable business venture].”

Ineffective aid policy is not only economically inefficient but, arguably, it is also immoral. Both John Stuart Mill and Jeremy Bentham, utilitarian philosophers who wrote during the 19th century, argued that in order for public policy to be moral, it must maximize the happiness of the greatest number of people and minimize suffering. In utilitarianism, intent is far less important than the realistic expectation of an action’s consequences. Current aid policy grossly violates these utilitarian precepts. Either countries send aid and believe their obligation is fulfilled due simply to their good intentions, or they pursue policies, fully aware their actions neither maximize happiness nor minimize suffering. Take two of the aid policies already described: charitable giving in the presence of domestic agricultural subsidies and the United States’ “tied aid” for HIV/AIDS medication. In the first example, Western nations may feel that their moral obligation is fulfilled by temporarily relieving suffering in African nations when in fact their domestic policies amplify the very suffering they seek to relieve. Not only do agricultural subsidies maximize the happiness of the least amount of people – in this case American farmers – but they also significantly increase the suffering of Africans. The simultaneous pursuit of policies which serve to undermine each other, regardless of the intent of each individual policy, is ineffective at best and immoral at worst. Similarly, by requiring African nations to purchase HIV/AIDS medication at substantially higher prices when equal and less-expensive alternatives are available, the happiness of American pharmaceuticals is maximized while the suffering of Africans infected with HIV/AIDS is neglected. Helping 10 people when you could have just as easily helped 100 is a clear violation of utilitarian principle. In both of these cases, the method of providing aid is immoral because it fails to maximize the happiness of the greatest amount of people and instead, is designed to alleviate guilt, in the case of charitable giving, or increase the profitability of American companies, in the case of HIV/AIDS medication. Continually pursuing policies that cripple Africa’s fledgling economies or amplify its political, ethnic, and social weaknesses, regardless of how well-intentioned these policies may be, represents a substantial lack of societal integrity and moral clarity.

In the past several decades, economists have triumphantly claimed to have found the African panacea...	...Or not quite?
In 1946, Roy Harrod and Evsey Domar presented a model for long-term economic growth which would serve as a revered guide for international development for many years. They postulated that investment in machinery was the key to achieving growth. If a country�s own savings was insufficient to finance the level of investment necessary to reach the target growth rate, the gap would be filled by foreign aid. This model operates under the assumption of constant surplus labor, a notion undoubtedly influenced by the Great Depression.	Empirical evidence defies the Harrod-Domar model. A prime example is the Gold Coast, which in 1957 became the first sub-Saharan African country to gain independence from colonial powers. Economists viewed its prospects for growth with great optimism, and encouraged aid as prescribed under the Harrod-Domar model. The country � now known as Ghana � is in fact just as poor today as it was half a century ago. This model, unfortunately, has continued to be applied to developing countries, despite the criticisms of economists such as Nobel laureate Robert Solow, and later, Domar himself, who rescinded his own theory.
Another group of economists began to avidly advocate the spread of education in developing countries. Education, they claimed, would serve as a crucial mechanism for accumulating human capital; this is in contrast to the previous focus on physical capital.	The empirical evidence, however, has again proved otherwise. Countries such as Angola, Mozambique, Sudan, and Senegal experienced rapid growth in human capital from 1960 to 1987, and nonetheless were growth disasters.
Soon after, the rising concern about a rapidly growing population in third world countries led to a push for population control. Perhaps countries could not economize on their machinery and education because their populations were simply too large. This idea, proposed by modern-day Malthusianist Paul Ehrlich, set off generous foreign aid in the form of contraceptives.	USAID has played a major role in promoting family planning in third world countries. Condoms are used as balloons to adorn festivities at soccer matches. Obviously, the gift of means of birth control has not achieved desired results. The correlation between population growth and per capita income growth has yet to be proven. Perhaps the cause-and-effect relationship is, in reality, reversed.
Economists subsequently deemed that misguided government policies were hindering growth. They promoted loans to induce countries to commit to policy reform. Loans from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and The World Bank were contingent upon carrying out such reform, and became known as structural adjustment loans. There have since been a few successes, which show the potential of structural adjustment lending under right conditions.	Zambia is a different story; it received a total of twelve structural adjustment loans between 1980 and 1994, during which time its economy suffered from intense inflation and grew little. A recent World Bank study shows that, on average, this form of aid has accomplished little. The ultimate sign of the failure of structural adjustment lending proved to be the inability of the borrowing nations to repay debts. This is indeed evidence that aid money was not allocated productively.
This leads us to debt forgiveness, which has become increasingly advocated in recent years through endeavors such as the Jubilee 2000 campaign.	The campaign promises a string of positive effects, but can countries experience growth if the same mismanagement of funds that caused high debt in the first place continues?

Seth Payne, CIO, is a graduate student at the Yale Divinity School
Catherine Lee, News Editor, is a junior in Ezra Stiles College

From the war in dafur, to the chronic poverty to corruption many are the problems of Africa. And for years now, the west have been pouring aid in to the continent and it seems like a black hole, aids go in, nothing to show for it. The money keep going in and there is no beterment in net economic welfare of the people.

 

Today I have a very interesting discussion with a friend [Franck Ajisegbe], that made me take a different perspective. Maybe, the obvious problem is not really the problem, his position is the problem is fundamentally one of a lack of cohesive identity.

 

The way Franck laid out the issue which seems to make sense to me is this. Imagine four Nigerian guys, one Yoruba, one Igbo, one Hausa and the fourth one let's just say he is Efik. Efik, Hausa, Igbo and Yoruba are ethnic tribes by the way, imagine these guys in Japan, with no passports, hosted by a mutual japanese friend. How can this guys convince the Japanese man, that they are all Nigerians?

 

Let's assume he asks questions like, How do you say good morning in Nigerian? What kind of music do you listen to in Nigeria, What do you eat for breakfast in Nigeria etc. Except this guys are from the Metropolitan cities like Lagos or Abuja (or even then) there is no answer to these questions.

 

A frenchman is a frenchman, different from Europeans, Japanese is different froom Korean, and being Asian is a label. For us not only is being African a label, being Nigerian or any other identifiable grouping is artificial, a label.

Our nationalities is something we can trace to the land grab in Africa by the Europeans in the 17th century. Hence our total lack of Nationalism or nationalistic pride. Our Nationalism is disgust and indignation again the depth of corruption and despair in our various homelands.

 

Hence, says Franck, the problem of Africa derives from these lack of a sense of identity, a common purpose, a common destiny or even shared values. He posit, that hence there is no sense of leadership of the people by the people, because there is no people, there is no us, in the psyche of African leaders.

 

He gave the example of Eyadema of Cote D'Ivorie, who moved the capital from Lome to yamasukuro his village, who went ahead and build one of the largest basillicas in this hometown of his. He is a president for his local tribe as opposed to one for the nation state of Togo.

 

The political history of Nigeria is similar, from Nnamdi Azikwe to Obasanjo.

 

While I get this explanation and it seems plausible at first brush, does it explain African problem as we know it. To a large extent yes - our wars are primarily tribal, and sociopolitical breakdown is fueled by tribalism and lately religious differences. Can we extrapolate the same explanation to non African nations with similar problems, now or in the past - South East Asian, South America, comes to mind.

 

I have to say, while this theory may not explain all that is wrong with us, it definitely, explains a significant portion. And brings back to my mind all the agitation for the constitutional conference.

 

Other than rewrite Africa's geographical map on an ethnic basis (logistically a nightmare), what is the solution?

Francks' answer - a tribal nation regional gorverments with loyalty to the people, bounded by a weak central gorverment.

 

Political literature is full of theses on the merits and demerits of a centralized versus decentralized gorvernments.

 

This is one that needs to be explored some more. 

 

My recent visit to Nigeria, is defintely thought provoking. At some point, I hope to post pictures on this site.

 

In general, I will say the trip was quite educational, but most interesting are the ways in which my thinking has changed.

Topics I will like to blog about include:

Thoughts about development

Evaluation of development in Nigeria

Where I think the country is headed

alternative strategies -colonization

success stories -- what others are doing etc.

 

While we were in Nigeria, the new census results came out, Nigeria is a country of 140 Million people

 

 

The quote above is from an anonymous respondent to my blog posting "WABF revisited". It is very interesting and very much in line with what I am thinking about these days.

First, is the challenge to help change the mores, there is no doubt that I am angry about the situation in Nigeria. And  feel like I have to do something about it, I realize I am priviledged, to have escaped the poverty - but I can not run away anymore, I have to do something. The question is what?

 

Second, the most galling thing to me is corruption, I have never received bribe in my life, however unfortunately I have given it. From the airport to just using the road (road block) I have had to give bribe in Nigeria (and probably will again).  Nowadays, I realize I am not as mad about the corruption at the top as I am about the endemic corruption through out the community, which is why votes will be bought, gorverment officials won't do their duties etc. and I call into question, the ethics and values of Nigerians (the Nigerian people). My opinion is Nigeria has the type of leaders Nigeria deserves.

 

Third, the believe in forfeiting ill-gotten wealth and not all they own. This resonates with me on several levels, one is shows me up - that I am angry and jealous. Anger never have and never will solve any problem. Jealousy is a negative motivation.

On another level, I understand that capitalism by its very nature has some elements that seems not to be fair to the general masses.

 

Fourth, there are already numerous think tanks, discussions etc. already in place, Nigeria needs swift positive action.

If there is anything Nigerians are good at, it is talking -- moi included. We all have the solution to our political problems. However, I can't shake the underlying feeling that a lot of times, we don't really know what we are talking about. Our piece of Nigeria is Nigeria to us. the economic strata that someone is born influenced how they perceive the society, seems like we are lacking in a shared concept of what Nigeria is.

What exactly is the positive action Nigeria needs? Why does it have to be swift? What can I do?

 

Interesting things I have heard recently that resonates on these things.

 

Friends that have engaged in intellectual discourse with me, will know how important the nature and nuture argument affects my thinking.

There are several things I want to blog about today and all of them have the slight undertone of nature versus nuture.

 

First, I have been thinking about Nigeria a lot lately and no denying it, I think I am part of the brain drain. The question is do I want to go back?

Essentially the answer is the classic "it depends".

Fundamentally, I want to go back however I dont think I will ever fully go back because in a way I am a misfit in the ethical mores of Nigeria. As a society, Nigeria is morally corrupt (yes I am willing to debate this one) and my values don't quite fit. Hence my recent thinking is maybe I am meant to be a bridge, one leg in one leg out, so I can help change the mores.

 

Second, I think of Nigerian political leadership and of course I feel angst - the existence of Dare Obajanso in the confines of my environment increases this angst. But the more I think about it, the more I think the leadership, though bad is not the problem, the problem is followership. Nigeria has the leadership, Nigeria deserves. The question then is - how do you change the followership and not the leadership?

 

Third, there political environment of Nigeria is boiling again, there are these new deal guys - Pat Utomi et al. who thinks they represent change and progress and the old guard is back again, with Babangida throwing his hat back in the ring.

Here simply is my solution, anyone over the age of 40, should not be allowed to hold a public office. Anyone wanting to hold  public office, has to open their finances to the public and sign a contract forfeiting all the on and giving up their citizenship if ever convict(ed) of corruption.

In addition, every leader should state what they plan to do, why and how they plan to do it especially financing thier projects. Then they should give interim timeline e.g. if this much is not done by this time (2 years or less) I will retire.

 

Fourth, this is my answer to the followership question - lets start a think tank on the Nigerian followership issues.

 

None but ourselves can free our minds [Bob Marley]